02 · Track record
Every idea we have published, and how it did.
This is the whole list. Every published idea appears here from the day it goes out. Open ideas stay open until they close, then they are scored against their benchmark. Nothing is removed.
No ideas published yet. Every idea will appear here, scored at close, losses included.
How ideas are scored
- Return is the idea’s return from its reference price at publication to its close, in the direction of the view (a short idea gains when the price falls).
- Benchmark is the return of the benchmark named in the idea over the same dates.
- Beat benchmark counts closed ideas whose return was above their benchmark’s. If no benchmark return is recorded, the idea counts only if its return was above zero.
- Averages are simple per-idea averages of closed ideas, rounded to the nearest 0.1%. They are not portfolio returns and say nothing about position sizes.
- All figures are computed from the published ideas themselves. Nothing is estimated or filled in.
Ideas and desk calls are separate records
This page scores ideas: research published on securities the desk did not hold at publication. The desk’s own trades are a separate record on the sealed ledger: each call is logged as a hash when it is taken and revealed when it closes, losses included. The ledger currently holds 0 calls, 0 revealed.
[Calibration]
[When the desk states a confidence level, it should be right about that often. Once enough ideas and ledger entries have closed, this section will compare stated confidence with outcomes.]
Past results do not predict future results. None of this is personalized advice. Disclosure policy.